Insight Enugu guber: Obidients in fierce battle with PDP warhorses

Enugu State will elect a new governor on March 18, 2023. The current governor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, elected in 2015, will run out his second term by May 29.

 Seventeen candidates are vying to take over from Ugwuanyi, with four standing a chance of being elected. Ndubisi Mbah of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Frank Nweke Jr of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Chijioke Edeoga of the Labour Party (LP), and Uchechukwu Nnaji of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are the popular candidates in contention for the seat.
 
Normally, it would have been a walkover for Ndubisi Mbah of the PDP, whose party has dominated the state since the return to democracy in 1999. However, the contest has been thrown wide open with the entrance of supporters of the presidential candidate of the LP, Peter Obi, who are popularly called "Obidients."  

PDP’s dominance

 PDP has dominated the state since the country’s return to democracy. In 1999, Chimaroke Nnamani was elected under the platform of the PDP and governed the state for eight years. He handed over to a fellow party man, Sullivan Chime, who governed the state from 2007 to 2015.

In 2015, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi contested and won under the platform of the PDP. He is in the last few months of his second term as the state governor.

Similarly, the PDP dominated in 2015 and 2019 for elected positions in the National Assembly. In 2015, the PDP took all the eight House of Representatives seats and three senatorial seats. The same was repeated in 2019, with all National Assembly seats won by the PDP.

However, in the recent National Assembly elections, the LP won seven of the eight available House of Representatives seats, with the last going to the PDP. For the senatorial seats, the LP and the PDP took one each, with the third election postponed because of the murder of the LP contestant.

Thus, the dominance of PDP in the state was effectively challenged at the February 25 national polls, with the LP matching them and dominating the state. 

Party solidarity

 The PDP candidate, Mbah, is relying on party solidarity to win the state. He has the backing of the PDP's G-5 governors, whose leader, Nyesom Wike, represents. Wike has openly supported Mbah and claims he will win.

To consolidate this, members of the Ndi Oganiru group in Enugu endorsed him as their preferred choice in the coming polls. Several groups are also backing him.
 
The oil mogul's strength lies on the fact that Enugu is a PDP state and it is home for his party. Even Senator Chmaraoke Nnamani, who supported Bola Tinubu of the APC in the presidential election, is holding onto his PDP nomination as a senatorial candidate - a testament to how strong the PDP is in the state. 

Failed governance and broken trust

However, the PDP's path could be rough due to the perceived poor performance of the outgoing governor.
 
A resident in Enugu, Emeka Ikpo, said Ndubisi Mbah is a good man who, under normal circumstances, would get the people’s votes. However, his affiliation with PDP would cost him his political ambition. He said the PDP-led government had failed the people, tarnishing the party’s image in the state. He concluded that the PDP would lose, with the LP candidate being tipped as the state’s next governor.
 
An entrepreneur in Nsukka, Mercy Ohagwu, stated that PDP would lose in the forthcoming election. She said the people of Enugu were practically tired of Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, which led to his being voted out at the senatorial election, concluding the governor gave PDP a bad image which rubbed off on all the candidates presented of the party.
 
Another Enugu resident, Chike Ndubisi, said that Mbah had no chance of governing his state this year. He pointed out that the presidential election results showed the electorate’s view of who would win the next round of elections. "The people are tired of PDP, and you can see that even the governor lost his senatorial election," he remarked.
 
Ugwuanyi's performance in the last eight years is criticised by many who see him as a weak and ineffective governor. Many cite how he wept after the herdsmen massacre of Uzouwani and Nimbo natives in Enugu in 2016 as a sign of weakness for a chief security officer of a state.

Nigerian Voters Forum President, Ebube Umeh, said even though Ugwuanyi was not in control of federal security forces, he could have set a security outfit to show that he was the chief executive officer of the state.

"Set up a security outfit, confront the killer herdsmen, reassure your people that you are in charge," he said.

Will new wave favour Nweke Jr?

The rise of the LP popularity is a new dimension to Nigerian politics. Most contestants are riding on the bandwagon the party’s presidential candidate, Obi, created. This was seen at the polls during the presidential election, where the LP defeated the other candidates, especially in the South-East region.

Enugu State is not left out. It lost seven of its traditional House of Representative seats and one senatorial seat to the LP. The wave spared no one, including the incumbent governor, who lost the ticket to the LP candidate. 

However, it is easier to think that Edeoga of the LP will cruise to victory for being a candidate of the party. Pundits say that may not be the case as "Obidients" are divided. While the majority are supporting Nweke of the APGA due to his open support for Obi during the presidential election, some are backing Edeoga. Hence it may be a fierce battle between Obidients who are supporting two candidates, and the PDP. 

According to Frank Umeh, Nweke Jr had a brighter chance of winning the election, with Edeoga trailing him. 

"In a free and fair contest, the APC has no chance in Enugu," he added.
 
Head, Democracy & Governance at Justice, Development and Peace Commission (JDPC), Jide Bamgbose, said the Obi factor would play a big role in the election in Enugu State. 

"I don't see the PDP returning to power in the state. If care is not taken, the APC may win the state governorship election."
 
"I see a rematch between the LP and the PDP in the March 18 election in Enugu State. If the APC tries to pull stunts, it will be in a coalition between them and the PDP to fight LP," he noted.
 
He predicted a higher voter turnout in this election as it directly involved the people.