Insight Governorship: APC, NNPP in fight to the finish in Kano

Kano State citizens go to the polls on March 18 to elect a new governor as the outgoing Abdullahi Umar Ganduje's second term ends on May 29. 

The people will choose among 17 candidates presented by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) representing the same number of parties. 

The trend of the state’s politics concerning governorship elections has never been constant. Thus, all candidates from the three major parties stand a chance of winning the top seat in the state. 

Since the return to democracy in 1999, no party has had a total control over Kano State’s top seat. The governor’s seat has rotated after a party’s candidate spends two terms. 

Rabiu Kwankwaso was elected under the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999. He lost to Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigerian People’s Party (ANPP) in 2003. In 2011, Kwankwaso won again under the PDP and handed over to the All Progressives Congress (APC)'s Abdullahi Ganduje in 2015. Thus, the state’s top seat has rotated between parties at intervals, as no party can boast of complete dominance in the state. 

How Kano voted in recent elections

 
Kano’s political scene has been shared by the PDP and the APC (formerly ANPP). The state’s representatives at various levels comprise members of these two parties in different dimensions.
 
In 1999, the PDP took the governor’s seat, all three senatorial positions and 22 House of Representatives vacancies. The governor’s seats went to the ANPP in 2003, and the party kept the seat until 2011.
 
In 2007, the PDP got two of the House of Representatives seats, while the ANPP took 16. Two senatorial seats went to the ANPP, with the remaining one going to the PDP.
 
The PDP reclaimed the governorship seat in 2011. It got nine state house of assembly seats, with 31 going to the APC.

The 2015 elections saw the governorship seat returning to the APC, which kept it in 2019. In 2015, 24 of the House of Representatives seats and two senatorial seats went to the APC. The PDP got just one senatorial seat. At the state level, the PDP got six state house of assembly seats, but the APC took 34.

The 2019 election witnessed the APC claiming all House of Reps and senatorial seats in the state. The APC got 30 of the state house of assembly seats at the state level, but 10 went to PDP.

In the forthcoming gubernatorial election, the APC's candidate is the Deputy Governor, Nasir Gawuna; the PDP's candidate is Sadiq Wali; while the NNPP's is Abba Kabir-Yusuf.

NNPP’s dominance in 2023

The NNPP, however, dominated the last national elections in Kano State. The party took two out of the available three senatorial tickets and 17 out of 24 House of Representatives seats.

The victories were glaring as the party’s candidates floored incumbent national legislators from the APC at various constituencies. This pushed the APC to the brink, leaving them with few seats at the national level.

The presidential election saw the state pulling 997,279 votes, claiming 57.1 percent of the total votes. The party won at least 34 out of the 44 local government areas in the state.

Reacting to the dominance of the NNPP, the state’s Deputy Governor and governorship candidate of the APC, Nasir Gawuna, said there was no need to panic as he believed he would win at the polls. He said the presidential candidate of NNPP, Kwankwaso, was from the state, and thus, there was a lot of sentiment toward his candidacy. He added that the APC got the required percentage in the state, boasting that the party was on course to win at the polls on Saturday.

Will Kwankwaso’s influence prevail?

According to the Head Democracy & Governance at Justice, Development and Peace Commission (JDPC), Jide Bamgbose, the governorship election would be a local contest, saying that no two elections had the same characteristics. 

"The context will be different depending on what is on ground. There is also an effect on the context level - the prevailing issues and the state’s circumstances will determine who gets what."
 
Bamgbose said there were likely a lot of permutations, noting that Saturday's election could be different.
 
"Given what happened in the last election vis-à-vis Kwankwaso’s body language, he may not be involved in the next election, as his interest was in the national election. Thus, I foresee a two-race fight between the PDP and the APC candidates."
 
"This week, Ganduje met the former governor to discuss the gap because of the fallout of the national elections. There have been a lot of negotiations by various stakeholders, which will determine the form and shape of the forthcoming elections," he said.
 
He concluded that the fight would be between the PDP and the APC as he did not see the NNPP coming close in this election.
 
But a Kano native resident in Abuja, Yahaya Haruna, disagreed. He said the NNPP was a party to beat in the state, noting that residents of the state were tired of the two established parties.
 
"The NNPP will win Saturday's election due to the trust we have in Kwankwaso. We also want to grow the NNPP just as the South wants a new alternative in Labour Party," he added.