Insight March 18: Nigeria has lower chance of producing under-40 governor

 Nigeria has a lower probability of electing a young governor who is between 35 and 40 years in the forthcoming gubernatorial election, according to Dataphyte analysis.

This may not be good news for a country with a large population of young people.

The gubernatorial and state houses of assembly elections are slated to hold on March 18, 2023. This is the last phase of elections in the 2023 cycle, the first being the presidential and the National Assembly polls held on February 25.

In the first round of elections, the All Progressives Congress (APC) took center stage as the party won most of the contested seats, including that of the president.

Aside clinching the presidential position, APC won 162 House of Representative seats and 57 senatorial seats.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 102 House of Representative seats and 29 senatorial seats. The Labour Party (AP) got 34 House of Representatives seats and six senatorial seats. 

The remaining seats in the National Assembly were shared by the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and the Young Progressive Party (YPP).

While the APC will aim to increase its dominance in the next round of elections, PDP will try to reclaim its lost glory, and the new kid on the block, LP, will push to make a statement in the polls.

Twenty-eight states will be at the polls to either find new governors or re-elect their incumbent governors.

The emergence of the LP and the NNPP threatens APC and PDP’s quest to dominate governorship polls. Dataphyte thus shows how the governorship candidates stand in the forthcoming election.

Second-term bids

Eleven governors will be vying for continuation in office as they seek to be re-elected. Eight of these governors are contesting under the platform of the APC, while three are contesting under the PDP.

Those contesting under the APC are Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State, Mai Mala Buni, Yobe State; Bello Malawalle, Zamfara State; Dapo Abiodun, Ogun State; Abdullahi Sule, Nasarawa State; AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, Kwara State; Inuwa Yahaya, Gombe State; and Babagana Zulum, Borno State.

Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State. Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and Ahmadu Finitri of Adamawa State will be seeking re-election under the PDP.

The first round of elections brought some interesting narratives in these states. The parties of the governors of Lagos, Oyo, Yobe, Nasarawa, and Borno states all lost the presidential election. This, thus, puts their elections on the hanger as they make efforts to claim victory on March 18.

Gender disaggregate of contestants

Most contestants vying for the post of the governor are male. Data show that out of the 415 contestants in 28 states, only 25 are female. 

Of the major parties, only APC has a female governorship candidate in the person of Dahiru Ahmed Aishatu, vying for the post of governor in Adamawa State. The other candidates are contesting under the platform of other parties. Smaller parties such as ADP, APM, and SDP have three female governorship contestants, while AA, APP, NRM, and ZPL have two each.

The other parties have one contestant each, except AAC, NNPP, and PDP, who have no female governorship contestant.

However, there are 102 female deputising male contestants across the states. All the parties have at least two females who are deputy governorship candidates/ running mates in various states. The highest number of females contesting deputy governors is in ADP, with 10. Parties such as PDP, LP, and six others have six females contesting deputy governorship positions. The ADC has eight, while parties A and AA have seven each.

Age of contestants

Most of the candidates for governors and deputies contesting in the forthcoming elections are between 51 and 60 years. No fewer than 277 of the 832 contestants fall between this age, accounting for 33.29 percent.

The 41 – 50 age category has the second highest, with 240 contestants, representing 28.85 percent.

The chance of having a young governor is very low as only 15.42 percent of those contestants fall between 35 and 40 years. Of the 415 contestants, only 64 are in this age category.

Those within the mid-age category, 41-50 years, are 118, representing 28.43 percent, while those between 51 and 60 are 167, signifying 40.24 percent.

However, there is a high probability of having a young deputy governor. Data show that 127 of the contestants, representing 30.46 percent, are between 35 and 40 years old. The 41-50 category has 122 contestants, representing 29.26 percent, while 110 fall between the 51 and 60 age bracket.

Parties with older governorship candidates

The younger contestants for the position of governor are found in ADP, APM, APP, and ZLP. These parties have 11 contestants, except for APP with 12 contestants between 35 and 40 years. 

The APC doesn’t have any candidate in this age category. The PDP has two, LP has six, while NNPP has three.

The PDP has oldest governorship contestants, as 13 of their members are above 61 years. The NNPP has 10 members above 61 years, whereas APC has eight.

Four parties do not have any contestant above 61 years of age. These parties are A, APM, APP, and BP.

States with party presence

Six parties have governorship candidates in all states conducting the governorship elections. AA, ADP, ADC, APC, PDP, and SDP all have candidates in the forthcoming elections in all the states.

The LP has contestants in 27 states, NRM in 26 states, APP in 24 states, and NNPP in 24 states.

The A and the AAC are parties with the least number of contestants. They have contestants in 15 of the 28 states where governorship elections will be held.