Insight Who wins Abia State guber election: Otti or Ahaiwe?

On March 18, 2023, the people of Abia and 27 other states in Nigeria will elect their governors and state houses of assembly lawmakers who will lead them in the next four years. 

In Abia State, 18 candidates are contesting for the governorship position. The candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Labour Party (LP), and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) are seen as the frontline governorship contestants for the March 18 election. A political expert, Ademola Oni, however, believes it’s a two-horse race between Okey Ahiwe of the PDP and Alex Otti of the LP. 

Since the return to democracy in 1999, the PDP has been the dominant party in the Abia State. The party has produced all the state governors so far except Theodore Orji, who was elected on the Progressives Peoples Alliance (PPA) platform in 2007. Orji eventually returned to the PDP and was re-elected for a second term on the platform of the PDP. 

Apart from the governorship position, the party has also produced the majority of lawmakers representing the state at the federal level. 

For instance, in 2015, PDP won all the three senatorial seats and seven of the eight House of Representatives seats. In 2019, the party won two of the senatorial seats and lost the remaining seat to the APC. In the House of Representatives election, the party won a majority of the seats, further buttressing the dominance of the party in the state. 

However, the outcome of the February 25, 2023, presidential and National Assembly elections has brought a shift to what may be described as the order of things in the state. 

Presidential and National Assembly elections results 

According to the results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), for the first time since 1999, the PDP was defeated in a presidential election in Abia State.

The PDP scored only 22,676 votes, while LP polled 327,095, representing 88 percent of the total votes. The APC, on the other hand, garnered only 8,914 votes.

In the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, it was the opposite. The PDP won overwhelmingly in the state. It polled 368,303 votes and 219,698 votes, respectively, whereas the APC scored 13,394 votes in 2015 and 85,058 votes in 2019. The LP candidate in 2019 scored only 92 votes.

The party also recorded a huge victory in the 2015 and 2019 National Assembly elections. But in the 2023 election, it suffered a defeat just like it did in the presidential election.

For the first time, the PDP was unable to secure any of the three senatorial seats in the state. The three main opposition parties in the state — APC, APGA and LP - grabbed each of the three senatorial seats. Out of the eight House of Representatives seats, the LP won six while the PDP and the APC won one each, indicating a shift in the state’s politics.

This may make it difficult for the PDP in the governorship election if the electorate repeat the voting pattern followed during the just concluded presidential and National Assembly elections.

It is important to add that one of the senatorial candidates who lost the election is the current governor of the state, Okezie Ikpeazu. He contested for Abia South senatorial seat and came a distant third in the race with a total of 28,422 votes.

Although Ikpeazu has accepted his defeat in the senatorial election and said he is now focused on the upcoming governorship election, the defeat suffered by the party in the presidential election indicates that the road to victory for the party in the governorship may be bumpy.

However, Ikpeazu and four other G-5 governors did not support the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar. Ikpeazu, being a member of G-5, did not support Abubakar, but did not give an open support for the LP, candidate, Peter Obi.

However, a politics lecturer and analyst, Adaeze Amanze, said even if he had supported Abubakar, the result would not have significantly different.

"This is because the South-East people were clamouring that it was their turn, and one of their sons was on the ballot. So, perhaps, it was good that Ikpeazu did not support Abubakar," she added.

Path to victory for the frontline candidates

There are four frontline governorship candidates for the March 18 election. Ikechi Emenike of the APC, Gregory Ibe of APGA, Alex Otti of LP, and Okey Ahiwe, the candidate of the ruling PDP in the state.

Ahiwe emerged as the candidate of the PDP following the death of Uche Ikonne, who died on January 25. Until his emergence as the standard bearer of the party, Ahiwe was chief of staff to Ikpeazu,

While the power of incumbency and victory the PDP has enjoyed in past governorship elections in the state may have been an advantage for Ahiwe, the outcome of the presidential and National Assembly elections shows that it may not be a walkover for him

Besides the PDP's decision to zone the governorship position to Isiala Ngwa area of Abia Central senatorial zone instead of Abia Central, which a report noted would be a setback for the party in the upcoming election, the party also faces a big challenge from the strong Obidient Movement in the state who are also showing support for Alex Otti, the candidate of LP.

According to a report by BusinessDay, the Abia North senatorial zone was supposed to produce the state's next governor under the PDP based on the party’s rotational principle. However, the party micro-zoned the seat to Isiala Ngwa area of the Abia Central zone. This, according to the report, might affect the chances of the party as they would have a hard time convincing the electorate in Abia North to vote for the candidate of the party.

Apart from this, the party faces yet another challenge owing to the victory and strong wave of the Obidient Movement (the supporters of Peter Obi, by extension, LP) in the state. In the first leg of the 2023 general election, the electorate in the state voted overwhelmingly for the LP.

Although Dataphyte noted in an earlier report that the outcome of a presidential election in the state might not necessarily decide the direction of a state governorship election, the performance of the LP in the recently concluded elections places the party as a major contender in the race, which shouldn’t be written off, political watchers say.

While Governor Ikpeazu has argued that Peter Obi’s popularity will not help the LP governorship candidate, Otti, the political events in the state show that Otti is a candidate to beat in the election, especially with the support he is receiving from the Obidient Movement in the state.

Moreso, Peter Obi, the LP presidential candidate whom Ikpeazu noted his candidacy affected most of the results from the South East, Abia State inclusive in the just concluded presidential election, has publicly declared support for Otti and has urged the supporters of the party to vote for him in the upcoming election. He has also joined Otti in his campaign in the state, soliciting support for him.

According to a political analyst, Ademola Oni, the support from the Obidient Movement and the open campaign for Otti by Obi was a plus to the candidate who had been trying his luck at the number one seat in the state since 2015. 

He added that if the people of Abia continued the same voting pattern as seen in the presidential and National Assembly elections, then it might mean a landslide victory for the LP candidate. “But PDP will put up a strong contest to ensure they don’t lose out on everything in the election,” he said. 

Speaking on the chances of the candidates of the APC and the APGA, Oni noted that though they were frontline candidates, they would not pull as much weight as the candidates of the LP and the PDP.
 
“If you look at the presidential election result, you will see that APC and APGA polled few votes even though they both won a senatorial seat each. So, I do not see them pulling so much weight in the governorship election, even though this is a different election. It's not to say they do not pose a challenge to either of the other two parties,” he added.
 
Similarly, analysts say the performance of Ikpeazu has not been impressive. Some argue that he has fallen short of expectations on infrastructure, especially in Aba, and the people would not reward his party with victory on March 18. Secondly, they say he has failed to boost the Aba industrial city despite all his earlier promises.